National Risk Assessment 2023 – Overview of Strategic Risks

The Government has published the National Risk Assessment 2023 – Overview of Strategic Risks. The document outlines the 25 strategic economic, geopolitical, social, environmental, and technological risks facing Ireland over the short, medium and long term.

The National Risk Assessment is a systematic overview of national level risks we may face as a country, outlining these risks to facilitate analysis and discussion across society, policy makers and the political sphere, so that threats and events can be appropriately considered, pre-empted and planned for, to ensure the best possible outcomes. The National Risk Assessment informs the detailed risk management and preparedness exercises undertaken by Government Departments and Agencies.

Many of the risks identified for 2023 have been identified in previous iterations of the National Risk Assessment, however, there are new risks, and a number of other previously identified risks which have evolved significantly in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the cost-of-living challenge.

The full list of strategic risks for Ireland for 2023 are:

Geopolitical Risks

• Disruption of the multilateral system
• Future direction of the European Union
• Northern Ireland
• Armed conflict, terrorism and hybrid security threats

Economic Risks

• Fiscal Sustainability
• Inflation and the transition to higher interest rates
• Disruption to a secure and sustainable energy supply
• Concentration in Ireland’s enterprise mix
• Protectionism and deglobalisation
• Capacity constraints and infrastructure deficits

Societal Risks

• Social cohesion
• Housing
• Migration and integration
• Demographic change
• Digital exclusion

Environmental Risks

• Climate Change
• Biodiversity loss
• Extreme weather events and other disasters
• Pandemics
• Antimicrobial resistance
• Food safety and security

Technological Risks

• Data flows, storage and security
• Disruptive technology
• Cybersecurity
• Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Threats

First published in 2014, the National Risk Assessment – Overview of Strategic Risks provides an opportunity to identify and discuss significant risks that may arise for Ireland over the short, medium and long term.

Public consultation for the National Risk Assessment 2024 – Overview of Strategic Risks commenced on Monday 22 April and will conclude on Friday 17 May 2024.

Since its inception, the National Risk Assessment has provided a systematic overview of national-level risks and has drawn attention, at an early stage, to the importance of phenomena such as the UK’s departure from the EU, housing shortages, as well as pandemics.

The National Risk Assessment aims to provide a systematic overview of strategic risks facing the country to serve as the basis for political and public discussion and deliberation about their implications.

The National Risk Assessment also informs the detailed risk management and preparedness exercises undertaken by Government Departments and Agencies.

Previous iterations of the National Risk Assessment can be found here.

There are several stages of consultation and discussion to ensure the process is comprehensive and inclusive of all viewpoints.

The 2024 list of strategic risks will be developed through a collaborative process with Government Departments and Agencies, utilising a public consultation, which commenced on Monday 22 April 2024 .

Stakeholders and members of the public are invited to provide views on the list of strategic risks through an online survey and/or by providing an additional submission via email.

The National Risk Assessment 2024 – Overview will be updated to reflect the submissions received and to take account of national and international developments since the 2023 Risk Assessment was published in August 2023.

Further detail on the consultation process for 2024 can be found here.