National Risk Assessment 2024 – Overview of Strategic Risks

The Government has published the National Risk Assessment 2024 – Overview of Strategic Risks. The document outlines the twenty-four strategic economic, geopolitical, societal, environmental, and technological risks facing Ireland over the short, medium and long term.

The National Risk Assessment is a systematic overview of national level risks we may face as a country, outlining these risks to facilitate analysis and discussion across society, policy makers and the political sphere. This allows for trends and risks to be appropriately considered, pre-empted and planned for, to ensure the best possible outcomes. The National Risk Assessment informs the detailed risk management and preparedness exercises undertaken by Government Departments and Agencies.

Many of the risks identified for 2024 have been identified in previous iterations of the National Risk Assessment, however, there are new risks, and a number of other previously identified risks which have evolved significantly.

The full list of strategic risks for Ireland for 2024 are:

Geopolitical Risks

Increase in global insecurity and division

Future direction of the European Union

Instability in Northern Ireland

Armed conflict and terrorism

Hybrid Threats

Economic Risks

Fiscal sustainability

Infrastructure Deficits

Ireland’s enterprise mix

Protectionism and deglobalisation

Loss of competitiveness

Societal Risks

Social cohesion

Housing

Migration and integration

Demographic change

Pandemics, Antimicrobial Resistance, and Zoonosis

Environmental Risks

Climate change

Biodiversity and ecosystem loss

Extreme weather and natural disasters

Food safety, security and supply

Technological Risks

Artificial Intelligence and other advanced technologies

Energy security

Digital exclusion

Cybersecurity and Data

Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Threats

First published in 2014, the National Risk Assessment - Overview of Strategic Risks seeks to identify and discuss significant risks that may arise for Ireland over the short, medium and long term.

Since its inception, the National Risk Assessment has provided a systematic overview of national-level risks and has drawn attention, at an early stage, to the importance of phenomena such as the UK’s departure from the EU, housing shortages, as well as pandemics.

The National Risk Assessment aims to provide a systematic overview of strategic risks facing the country to serve as the basis for political and public discussion and deliberation about their implications.

Previous iterations of the National Risk Assessment can be found here.

There are several stages of consultation and discussion to ensure the process of developing each National Risk Assessment is comprehensive and inclusive of all viewpoints.

The 2024 list of strategic risks was written through a collaborative process with Government Departments and Agencies, utilising a public consultation, which ran from 22 April 2024 and 17 May 2024.

Stakeholders and members of the public were invited to provide views on strategic risks for 2024 through an online survey and/or by providing an additional submission via email.

The National Risk Assessment – Overview of Strategic Risks has been updated, where appropriate, to reflect the submissions received and to take account of national and international developments since the publication of the 2023 edition in August of last year.

Further detail on the consultation process can be found here.