Government publishes National Risk Assessment 2023 outlining top strategic risks facing Ireland
- Published on: 3 August 2023
- Last updated on: 25 August 2023
The government has today published the National Risk Assessment 2023 – Overview of Strategic Risks. The document outlines the 25 strategic economic, geopolitical, social, environmental, and technological risks facing Ireland over the short, medium and long term.
Speaking on the publication of the document, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said:
“With the return of war to Europe, alongside national and international inflation, and accelerating climate change, the identification and assessment of unpredictable, precarious risk and threats to our country is of ever greater importance.
“The National Risk Assessment, published by Government today, outlines the threats and risks which we may face in the future and which could have a very real impact on our country and our people. Through the National Risk Assessment we aim to bring about greater awareness of risks and increase national preparedness, to ensure the best possible outcomes for our country.”
The 2023 list of strategic risks was prepared through a collaborative process with government departments and agencies, drawing on a public consultation, and building on previous iterations of the National Risk Assessment.
The list of strategic risks outlined in the National Risk Assessment 2023 vary in nature, ranging from unavoidable global risks, such as climate change, to acute hazards, such as chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats. Many of the risks identified for 2023 have been identified in previous iterations of the National Risk Assessment, however, there are new risks, and a number of previously identified risks have evolved significantly in the context of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine and the cost-of-living challenge.
Notes
First published in 2014, the National Risk Assessment seeks to identify and discuss significant risks that may arise for Ireland over the short, medium and long term. The most recent National Risk Assessment, covering 2021/22, was published in December 2021.
Since its inception, the National Risk Assessment has provided a systematic overview of national-level risks and has drawn attention, at an early stage, to the importance of phenomena such as the UK’s departure from the EU, housing shortages, as well as pandemics.
By providing systematic overview of strategic risks facing the country, the National Risk Assessment serves as the basis for political and public discussion and deliberation about their implications.
The National Risk Assessment also informs the detailed risk management and preparedness exercises undertaken by government departments and agencies.
The full list of strategic risks for Ireland for 2023 are as follows.
Geopolitical risks
- disruption of the multilateral system
- future direction of the European Union
- Northern Ireland
- armed conflict, terrorism and hybrid security threats
Economic risks
- fiscal sustainability
- inflation and the transition to higher interest rates
- disruption to a secure and sustainable energy supply
- concentration in Ireland’s enterprise mix
- protectionism and deglobalisation
- capacity constraints and infrastructure deficits
Societal risks
- social cohesion
- housing
- migration and integration
- demographic change
- digital exclusion
Environmental risks
- climate change
- biodiversity loss
- extreme weather events and other disasters
- pandemics
- antimicrobial resistance
- food safety and security
Technological risks
- data flows, storage and security
- disruptive technology
- cybersecurity
- chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats