Climate Impact Screening (summary of Chapter 4)

Climate impact screening is the process of identifying all the ways climate change might impact the transport system. It’s the first step in building a robust, evidence-based adaptation plan.

T-SAP II screened more than 150 potential climate impacts across all transport modes, from national roads and rail to local bus stops and ports.

Some impacts, like flooding, are already occurring, while others such as heat-related damage to infrastructure are expected to become more significant later in the century under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5).

Examples of impacts identified:

• Roads: heavy rainfall weakening road foundations, leading to potholes or road closures
• Active travel: flooding can make footpaths, greenways and cycle lanes unsafe or unusable
• Buses: road flooding or storm damage disrupting bus routes and access to stops, particularly in low-lying or coastal areas
• Rail: flooding submerging tracks and leading to delayed operations
• Airports: strong winds or low visibility due to extreme rainfall leading to cancelled or delayed flights
• Ports: rising sea levels affecting docking and loading operations

Impacts were identified based on climate data, international research and consultation with transport agencies and operators.

Not all impacts are equally severe. The screening helped identify:

• a wide range of possible impacts across all transport modes
• where risks could cascade across multiple modes (for example, a flooded road disrupting both buses and rail alternatives)
• where further analysis and action are needed

This is the evidence base that guides the next step: prioritising which risks need action first.

Read more in Chapter 4 of the plan