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Minister for Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science Patrick O’Donovan TD launched the Update to the Report on the Analysis of Skills for Residential Construction & - Retrofitting 2023-2030 which highlights the productivity dividend from the expansion of Modern Methods of Construction.
The Report contains detailed forecasts of the skills required to deliver an annual average of 50,000 new homes and retrofit an annual average of over 63,000 existing older homes over the period 2024 – 2030.
Some of the key findings of the report include:
Initiatives to increase skills and sectoral capacity are a major feature of Housing for All. This focus will continue and is now more crucial than ever as we look to increase our ambition under the Plan.
Addressing the Construction Sector Skills Forum at Trinity College today, Minister O’Donovan said:
“The Government is scaling up its ambition under the Housing for All Plan.
“And there has been incredible success already, with construction commenced on over 49,000 new homes in the twelve months to end-August, and new build completions expected to increase significantly towards the end of 2024.
“However, we are acutely aware that there are significant challenges ahead of us, not least the demand for tens of thousands of additional skilled workers by 2030 so we can increase our ambitions.
“And what this report makes abundantly clear is that the widespread adoption of Modern Methods of Construction is key to addressing the housing needs of our growing country.
“This will demand enthusiastic buy in from the construction sector, but it will also require my Department and partners in Government to implement a comprehensive strategy to deliver the skilled workers the industry needs to make the necessary changes.
“On foot of this report, an updated action plan for the tertiary education system is being developed by my Department, while we are also investing record sums in apprenticeships, building an MMC Demonstration Park at Mount Lucas, and Skillnet Ireland are developing the ‘Skillnet MMC Accelerate’ platform to showcase MMC projects.
“Complementary to these activities, and indeed to this Report, my Department is also developing an Action Plan in response to the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs’ July report, Skills for Modern Methods of Construction - An Assessment of the Current and Future Skills Requirements for the Transition to Modern Methods of Construction.
“There is much more Government and industry are doing, and of course still need to do, in order meet the challenge of housing in this country, but we know that if we are innovative and collaborative in our approach, we will continue to increase delivery in the years ahead.”
To read the full report, go to An Update to the Report on the Analysis of Skills for Residential Construction and Retrofitting .
The Report on the Analysis of Skills for Residential Construction & Retrofitting 2023–2030 (‘Skills Analysis Report’) and corresponding Action Plan were published by the Department of Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science in December 2022.
The Skills Analysis Report quantified the additional construction skills required to deliver the Government’s targets under Housing for All and the National Retrofit Plan and undertake general home repair, maintenance and improvement works.
It indicated a need for 50,831 new entrants into the construction sector, from professional, craft, operative and other trade routes.
The underlying projections of the Skills Analysis Report were reviewed in 2023 to ensure they remained current.
The Update to the Report on the Analysis of Skills for Residential Construction & Retrofitting (‘Updated Report’) outlines forecasts for 2024- 2030 based on the same three categories of residential construction activity:
1. The skills required to build an increased average of 50,000 homes annually (from 33,000); Two different forecast scenarios are presented for new builds: ‘No change’ and ‘Application of MMC’, the latter of which predicts the likely impact on employment and skills of a realistic level of application of MMC up to 2030.
2. The skills required to retrofit an annual average of 63,444 homes (to achieve a 2030 target of 500,000 retrofits);
3. The skills required for general repair, maintenance and improvement of the housing stock. The Updated Report includes skills at every level of the National Framework of Qualifications.
In the ‘no change’ scenario, it is estimated that 78,885 new entrants need to be recruited in managerial, professional, skilled, and semi-skilled occupations over the forecast period.
In the more likely ‘application of MMC’ scenario, it is estimated that 68,869 new entrants need to be recruited. While the increase in productivity due to MMC is gradual, by 2030 there are just over 10,000 less workers required to deliver the annual average of 50,000 new homes.
This lower rate of increase equates to a productivity increase of 20% compared to the ‘no change’ forecast.
The productivity dividend is only seen in the case of new home building and not retrofitting or general repair, maintenance and improvement of the housing stock, for which MMC are not expected to be disruptors.
Impact of widespread adoption of MMC on skills requirements
When compared to the “no change” scenario the implications are very significant for craft workers, with an overall reduction of 20% in the increased number of workers forecast.
The number of additional bricklayers is at least 40% less, and there are similar anticipated large differences between the forecast scenarios for carpenters, plasterers, and painters and decorators, as well as other non-designated crafts such as glazers.
The forecast predicts a contraction of 46% in the operatives group as greater MMC use transfers many operative tasks off-site. Whilst this will largely be a reclassification of employment sector, new off-site occupations will be created, such as factory framework operative.
The application of MMC is to some extent a reskilling process for many craft and operative roles, with new skills and methods for off-site processes needing to be developed. Professional skills will not experience any technological displacement of workers in either scenario.
Rather, both scenarios predict an expansion of over 6,000 in the number of construction professionals required.
At the same time, it must be acknowledged that both scenarios are forecasts. Regarding MMC in particular, there is a degree of uncertainty as to the rate of adoption of such methods, and any corresponding implications for skills demand.
The Updated Report notes that shortages already exist for plumbers, electricians, steel erectors, and insulation operatives on the craft side and planners, project managers and quantity surveyors on the professional side.
Shortages will become more extensive as construction activity ramps up, and may include building surveyors, architectural technologists and possibly architects.
The report identifies four main domestic sources:
Outside of these sources, the report identifies two sources:
The skills required for professional, technical and craft apprenticeship qualifications are the most challenging due to the length of time required to qualify.
The widespread application of MMC forecast in the MMC scenario will require extensive upskilling across all skills levels.
Continuing professional development and the upskilling of existing qualified craft workers will need to form an intrinsic component of the skills strategy up to 2030.
As noted above, however, there is a degree of uncertainty with any forecast scenario.