Government publishes top strategic risks facing Ireland
- Foilsithe: 2 Nollaig 2021
- An t-eolas is déanaí: 12 Aibreán 2025
The government has today published the National Risk Assessment 2021/2022 – Overview of Strategic Risks, setting out the most significant geopolitical, economic, social, environmental and technological risks facing the country.
Speaking on the launch of the report the Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, said:
“By any measure, the experience of the past number of years has really brought home the importance of work in the area of risk management and preparedness. By promoting an open and inclusive discussion on the major risks facing the country, the National Risk Assessment plays an important role in this work.
"In particular, the past number of years have shown the evolving nature of risk and the importance of making sure our systems have the resilience and adaptability to deal with these changes.
"Nowhere is this more evident than with the COVID-19 pandemic. The vaccination programme and advances in our understanding of the virus are driving substantial progress, and we have been able to re-open many aspects of our society and economy. However, the pandemic continues to evolve and so too must our responses to deal with it - in terms of both the virus itself and the impacts it is having right across our society.
"We also need to maintain focus on the range of other existing and emerging risks. As is clear from the public consultation process, a major area of concern is climate change. Another area of concern is social cohesion in the context of employment, housing and capacity challenges. The government remains committed to making the investments and changes needed to tackle these risks.”
The National Risk Assessment is a collaborative exercise to identify and discuss significant risks facing the country and this report will feed into more detailed risk management processes by departments and agencies. The report has been developed with input from a public consultation process and over 50 submissions received from organisations, public representatives and individuals. Climate change, biodiversity loss and social and economic inequality emerge as significant concerns across the submissions received.
Many of the strategic risks included in the National Risk Assessment 2021/2022 have been identified in previous assessments. However, there are a number of new risks related to COVID-19, and other previously identified risks have been exacerbated. Brexit has introduced a degree of instability and key risks in this regard are identified in the assessment.
New risks identified include economic scarring, digital exclusion, and the rise of a multi-polar world. The combination of the pandemic, Brexit and supply chain constraints has exacerbated previously identified risks including skills shortages and the supply and affordability of housing. This is at the same time as major risks, in particular climate change, are taking on even greater importance.
The report notes some emerging international views on lessons for risk governance from the COVID-19 experience, as well as an emphasis at EU level on improving resilience. There will be scope in the months ahead for further consideration of lessons for risk management.
Notes
About the National Risk Assessment
First published in 2014, the National Risk Assessment provides a systematic approach to identify and debate strategic risks facing Ireland over the short, medium and long-term.
The National Risk Assessment is a key element of the overall risk management process of the government as it identifies areas where departments/agencies need to focus their individual risk management processes and mitigation policies. It does not replace the detailed risk management that is conducted within departments/agencies.
The National Risk Assessment’s previous iterations have called attention to a number of strategic risks facing the country that subsequently became major issues for the country, including Brexit, cyber security, housing supply, and pandemics.
The National Risk Assessment has previously been an annual exercise however, due to the very significant impacts of the pandemic the decision was taken not to carry out the National Risk Assessment in 2020. In undertaking this National Risk Assessment for 2021/2022, consideration has been given to how the pandemic has resulted in or impacted on strategic risks, while seeking to ensure appropriate and balanced consideration of other major risks.
National Risk Assessment 2021/2022 – Overview of Strategic Risks
Developing the National Risk Assessment
The National Risk Assessment process is designed to ensure broad consideration of the risks that Ireland may face. There are several stages of consultation and discussion to ensure the process is comprehensive and inclusive of all viewpoints.
A new draft National Risk Assessment was published for public consultation in July, and laid before the Oireachtas. The National Risk Assessment 2021/2022 – Overview of Strategic Risks has now been finalised. It has been updated in light of the public consultation process and to take account of major developments since the draft was published in July.
In line with previous years, the categories of risk are based on the approach used by the World Economic Forum in their ‘Global Risks Report’; geopolitical, economic, social, environmental and technological. A full list of the risks identified in the National Risk Assessment is at Table 1 below.
Table 1: Strategic risks – 2021/2022
| Geopolitical risks | Rise of a multipolar world |
| Future direction of the European Union | |
| Ireland’s relationship, post-Brexit, with the United Kingdom | |
| Armed conflict, terrorism and hybrid threats | |
| Economic risks | Economic scarring |
| Public finances and the financial system | |
| Labour shortages, supply chain and capacity constraints | |
| Inflation | |
| Vulnerabilities arising from Ireland’s enterprise mix | |
| Changes to international trading relationships | |
| Disruption to a secure and sustainable energy supply | |
| Social risks | Social cohesion |
| Housing and sustainable development | |
| Migration and integration | |
| Demographic change | |
| Digital exclusion | |
| Environmental risks | Climate change |
| Biodiversity loss | |
| Extreme weather events and other natural disasters | |
| Pandemics | |
| Antimicrobial resistance | |
| Food safety | |
| Technological risks | Data flows, storage and security |
| Disruptive technology | |
| Cybersecurity | |
| Nuclear contamination |